The Impact of Tariffs on Back-to-School Shopping
As families gear up for the new academic year, back-to-school shopping is facing challenges due to various economic factors. With inflation showing signs of moderation, recent tariffs implemented by the Trump administration are raising concerns about increased prices for essential school supplies. This season, parents are expected to tighten their budgets amid rising costs for items like backpacks and other back-to-school essentials.
Economic Outlook and Spending Trends
While back-to-school spending for K-12 students is projected to hit approximately $30.9 billion this year, averaging around $570 per child, this figure marks a decline from the $586 spent per child in 2024. Insights from a 2025 retail survey by Deloitte reveal a shift in consumer behavior influenced by ongoing economic uncertainty. Over 1,200 parents participated in the survey, highlighting their cautious approach to shopping this season.
Deloitte’s principal, Brian McCarthy, emphasized that many families are placing a higher priority on financial stability as they navigate back-to-school shopping. This change comes as rising prices have made some school supplies more expensive than in previous years.
Tariff Implications on Consumer Prices
The tariffs initially outlined in Trump’s economic agenda, which included a baseline 10% levy on imported goods, are set to take effect after a 90-day delay. Economists warn that once these tariffs are fully implemented, they could significantly affect consumer pricing, making necessities even less affordable for families.
Jack Kleinhenz, chief economist at the National Retail Federation, pointed out that the impact of these tariffs has not yet fully materialized in retail prices. However, he indicated that sustained increases in tariffs may lead to reduced consumer spending, further complicating the back-to-school shopping landscape.
Changing Shopping Habits
In light of these economic challenges, families are modifying their shopping strategies. According to Deloitte, 75% of parents report that they would consider switching brands if their favorite options became too costly, a notable rise from 62% the previous year. Additionally, 65% are planning to shop at budget-friendly retailers instead of their usual stores.
Surveys indicate that a significant portion of consumers—56%—are cutting back on non-essential purchases in order to save money. As schools prepare to reopen, nearly two-thirds of families (62%) intend to start their back-to-school shopping before August, a strategy aimed at avoiding potential price hikes.
The continued uncertainty surrounding tariffs and inflation has made consumers more proactive. As noted by John Mercer from Coresight Research, the urgency to shop earlier stems from a desire to mitigate any future financial impacts. While the current tariff situation has caused some hesitation in shopping patterns, it’s clear that families are taking steps to safeguard their budgets.
Financial Strain on Families
Even amidst budgeting strategies, many parents report a willingness to incur debt to ensure their children have the necessary supplies for school. A NerdWallet report emphasizes that 53% of parents would borrow money for extracurricular activities, while 46% would do the same for essential school items to help their children feel included.
The desire to provide for children, especially when it comes to trendy school items or new outfits for the first day of school, continues to drive spending. Many families find themselves balancing the need for quality and affordability in a challenging economic environment.
In summary, the upcoming back-to-school season presents a complex landscape for families as they navigate increased pricing pressures from tariffs and inflation. By being mindful of their spending and adjusting shopping habits, parents aim to provide their children with the best educational experience possible while remaining financially responsible.
