Soybean Market Update: Weekly Insights
Recent Price Trends
In the latest trading session, soybean prices experienced declines ranging from 6 to 9 cents. Despite recent USDA data releases, bullish movement in futures failed to materialize. Throughout the week, August soybeans saw a notable decrease of 51 1/4 cents, while November contracts dropped by 42 cents compared to last Thursday’s closing prices. The average cash price for soybeans nationally fell by 7 3/4 cents, settling at $9.64 1/4 per bushel. Meanwhile, soymeal futures declined by 90 cents to $1.80 per ton, although soy oil prices increased by 12 to 26 points.
Export Activity
In today’s market news, the USDA announced a private export sale of 219,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans to Mexico. This significant transaction highlights ongoing international demand for U.S. soybeans, despite recent price pressures in the domestic market.
CFTC Report Insights
According to the latest CFTC data, managed money positions in soybean futures and options shifted dramatically. As of July 8th, there was a switch to a net short position of 6,216 contracts, reflecting a move of 6,641 contracts from a prior net long stance. Commercial traders also adjusted their positions, decreasing their net short holdings by 9,392 contracts, totaling 110,199 contracts as of the last report.
WASDE Update Overview
The USDA’s recent WASDE report indicated a 15 million bushel increase in U.S. soybean export projections. However, this gain was offset by a corresponding cut in residuals, leaving the carryout for the old crop at 350 million bushels. For the upcoming crop, multiple adjustments were made, including a reduction of 5 million bushels in production estimates down to 4.335 billion bushels due to decreased acreage. While export forecasts saw a significant reduction of 70 million bushels, the crush estimate rose by 50 million bushels, contributing to a higher projected carryout of 310 million bushels, up by 15 million bushels.
Global Production Estimates
Looking at the global soybean market, Argentina’s production for the 2024/25 year has been raised by 0.9 million metric tons to reach 49.9 million metric tons. In contrast, Brazil’s production remains steady at 169 million metric tons. Furthermore, the expected world ending stocks for 2025/26 have been adjusted upward by 0.77 million metric tons, totaling 126.07 million metric tons.
Brazilian Soybean Prospects
Safras & Mercado has projected the Brazilian soybean output for the 2025/26 season at 179.88 million metric tons, compared to the USDA’s estimate of 175 million metric tons. The firm anticipates an increase in acreage by 576,000 hectares (approximately 1.4 million acres), bringing the total to 48.217 million hectares (119.14 million acres).
Cash Price Overview
As of the latest reports on July 25, soybean cash prices have shown some fluctuation:
- Soybeans closed at $10.04, yielding a decrease of 8 1/2 cents.
- Nearby cash prices settled at $9.64 1/4, down by 7 3/4 cents.
- August 25 soybean futures closed at $10.04 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents.
- November 25 soybean futures were at $10.07 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
- New crop cash prices also declined to $9.58 3/4, down by 6 1/2 cents.
This detailed examination of the soybean market conditions reveals a nuanced landscape influenced by both domestic and international factors, as well as adjustments in stakeholder positions. The overall climate suggests careful monitoring of price movements and export dynamics as market participants navigate these changes.
