Soybean Market Update: Trends and Insights

Current Market Status

As of midday Friday, the soybean market is showing a decline of 1 to 2 cents. After reaching its peak since mid-May earlier this morning, July soybeans have faced downward pressure throughout the day. Open interest has increased by 6,070 contracts, with July experiencing a drop of 9,391 contracts while November climbed by 11,509 contracts. The current cash soybean price stands at $10.23 ½, a decrease of 2 cents. Soymeal futures are stable to slightly positive, reflecting an increase of up to 70 cents from Wednesday’s close. Simultaneously, soy oil reached its highest pricing for the current contract early today, although most futures are down by 5 to 8 points as traders take profits ahead of July options expiration, which affects all three segments of the soybean complex.

Weather Influences

The weather forecast for the upcoming week predicts significant rainfall for the Northeast and the southeastern regions of South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and parts of Michigan, with totals ranging from 1 to 5 inches in specific areas. In contrast, the Southern Plains, as well as Missouri and the Eastern Corn Belt, are expected to see lower accumulations. However, heat is anticipated to dominate much of the Corn Belt, with temperatures expected to surpass 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the Plains and Western Corn Belt this weekend, although these extreme temperatures should ease by early next week.

Export Sales Report Overview

This morning’s export sales report revealed impressive soybean sales for the 2024/25 marketing year, with figures exceeding the expected range of 0 to 400,000 metric tons, totaling 539,511 metric tons for old crop soybeans for the week ending June 12. This figure marks a 14-week high and reflects an 8.3% increase compared to the same week last year. Additionally, new crop sales amounted to 75,151 metric tons, landing in the middle of expectations, and marking the highest sales in five weeks.

Soybean meal sales recently totaled 174,302 metric tons, of which 160,281 metric tons were recorded for the current marketing year. This figure falls on the lower side of trade estimates, which ranged between 150,000 and 450,000 metric tons. In contrast, soybean oil sales reported a net negative of 1,473 metric tons due to deferrals and cancellations, falling short of trade expectations, which had ranged from 0 to 32,000 metric tons for the oil category.

International Trade Dynamics

In the international market, China’s soybean imports in May reached 12.11 million metric tons from Brazil, significantly outperforming last year’s data, according to customs statistics. Furthermore, imports from the United States registered an increase of 11.7% year-over-year, totaling 1.63 million metric tons.

Price Movement Snapshot

Here’s a quick overview of recent pricing trends for soybeans:

• July 25 Soybeans: $10.68 ¾, down 6 cents
• Nearby Cash Soybeans: $10.21 ¾, down 4 ¾ cents
• August 25 Soybeans: $10.72, down 4 ¾ cents
• January 26 Soybeans: $10.76 ½, down 5 cents
• New Crop Cash Soybeans: $10.09 1/1, down 5 ½ cents

This overview of the soybean market reflects ongoing fluctuations influenced by various factors, including market pressures, weather conditions, and international trade dynamics. The developments in soybean sales and pricing continue to shape the landscape for traders and market analysts alike.