Corn Market Update: April 2023
Corn futures experienced a dip on Thursday, unable to maintain the minor gains seen during midday trading. The May corn contract fell by 8 cents this week, while the December contract reported an increase of 2.5 cents. The current national average cash corn price in the front month, as indicated by CmdtyView, decreased by 1.75 cents, settling at $4.55 1/2 per bushel. Trading will pause on Friday in observance of Good Friday, with regular market activities resuming Sunday night.
This morning’s export sales report showed a significant increase in corn exports, reaching 1.562 million metric tons (MMT) for the week ending on April 10. This figure nearly doubled the exports from the previous week and significantly outperformed the same week last year. Among the notable buyers, Mexico purchased 401,500 MT, followed by Japan with 263,300 MT and Spain with 240,000 MT. The new crop accounted for a modest 10,000 MT.
In Brazil, the National Supply Company (CONAB) revised its ethanol production estimate to 37.19 billion liters, an upward adjustment from the prior estimate of 36.08 billion gallons. A significant portion of this ethanol production will stem from sugarcane, which is expected to contribute to 29.35 billion gallons of the total output.
Turning to Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that harvesting is progressing, with 28% of the corn crop completed—surpassing the average pace of 20% for this time of year.
The International Grains Council’s latest report revealed an increase in global corn production projections for the 2024/25 period by 2 MMT compared to the previous month, alongside a consumption increase of 1 MMT. Consequently, stock estimates also rose by 1 MMT, reaching 276 MMT. For the following crop year of 2025/26, the output and consumption forecasts were adjusted upward by 5 MMT and 6 MMT, respectively, bringing stock projections for the new crop to 281 MMT.
As for the specific corn futures prices at the close on Thursday:
- May 25 Corn settled at $4.82 1/4, down 2 cents.
- Nearby Cash prices were at $4.55 1/2, reflecting a decrease of 1 3/4 cents.
- July 25 Corn finished at $4.90 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents.
- December 25 Corn closed at $4.66, which was a decline of 3/4 cent.
- For the new crop cash, the price stood at $4.30 3/8, down by 1/4 cent.
In summary, the corn market is currently navigating a blend of export dynamics, production estimates, and evolving weather conditions influencing supply and demand. The numbers presented earlier reflect both domestic trading activities and international demand factors that will shape the market in the coming months.
