- The U.S. has implemented 10% tariffs effective April 5, with additional tariffs anticipated on April 9.
- Bitcoin’s value dropped below $80,000 to reach $77,020 due to the unwinding of the Yen carry trade.
- The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on April 10 may further influence sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets.
On April 10, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to hold a closed meeting, and investors are keenly watching for any indication of a resolution in the ongoing case against Ripple Labs.
Market observers are particularly interested in whether the SEC will choose to withdraw its appeal regarding the ruling from July 2023, which stated that programmatic sales of XRP do not qualify as securities.
Despite Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s assertion that the appeal would be withdrawn, the SEC has remained silent for three weeks. This uncertainty, compounded by rising U.S. trade tariffs and global economic pressures, has significantly impacted XRP’s price.
XRP Declines 39% Since January
XRP has experienced a 39% decline since January 31, witnessing a steep drop of 10.38% on April 6. It closed at $1.9217 on that day, reversing a previous gain of 0.73%, and is now trading at $1.76.
This notable downturn occurred amidst a broader 6.88% decline in the global cryptocurrency market, which now has a total market cap of $2.46 trillion.
A significant reason for XRP’s decline is the SEC’s inaction regarding the appeal. Unlike the SEC’s swift dismissal of a case against Coinbase after comments from CEO Brian Armstrong, there has been no public statement from the commission regarding Ripple.
This prolonged silence has heightened investor anxiety and clouded the prospects for a potential XRP spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could thrive under clearer regulatory conditions.
During Thursday’s meeting, Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, Commissioner Hester Peirce, and Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw are expected to vote on the future of the case.
With a Republican majority of 2-1 advocating for the cessation of non-fraud-related crypto enforcement actions, the prospect of withdrawing the appeal remains a possibility, though it has yet to be confirmed.
Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Crypto
XRP’s legal ambiguities are unfolding alongside the reintroduction of U.S. trade tariffs. A 10% baseline tariff package initiated by President Trump went into effect on April 5.
Additional tariff announcements are anticipated on April 9, placing further strain on financial markets already shaken by recent sell-offs.
Retaliatory measures from China, the European Union, and Japan have also emerged, fueling concerns about an escalating global trade war.
These growing tensions are nudging investors toward safer assets and risk-averse strategies, thereby exposing cryptocurrencies—such as XRP and Bitcoin—to increased volatility.
Moreover, XRP’s exclusion from discussions regarding a potential U.S. Strategic Reserve Asset has further dampened market sentiment, making it more challenging for the token to recover despite short-term recovery efforts.
Bitcoin Affected by Yen Carry Trade
XRP’s downward trajectory coincided with a wider retreat in the cryptocurrency market, as Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $80,000 for the first time since March 11, falling to $77,020.
This decline was driven by the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. As the Bank of Japan maintains its hawkish stance and the Yen strengthens, traders who had borrowed in Yen to invest in higher-yield assets are now closing their positions.
On April 7, the USD/JPY rate fell to 145.108—a 3.23% drop—intensifying market concerns.
Historically, such unwinding events have influenced cryptocurrency prices significantly. In August 2024, Bitcoin dropped by 8.85% following policy shifts from the Bank of Japan, and a similar trend is now emerging as global capital shifts toward lower-risk assets, resulting in increased pressure on BTC and XRP.
XRP’s Future Linked to SEC and CPI Data
Traders are bracing for a potentially volatile week ahead, with several upcoming data releases and regulatory decisions on the docket. The CPI report on April 10 will shed light on U.S. inflation, potentially influencing Federal Reserve guidance and impacting the performance of risk assets.
For XRP, the pivotal factor remains the SEC meeting on Thursday. A confirmed withdrawal of the appeal could rekindle optimism for ETF approval and institutional adoption. Alternatively, continued SEC silence may push the token closer to support levels around $1.7938.
While the prospect of an ETF and resolution of appeals presents potential upside, ongoing inflation, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory uncertainty continue to dominate market sentiment.
On April 5, a 10% tariff package from the U.S. came into effect, with additional tariffs expected on April 9. This development led to a ripple effect across financial markets, notably impacting the cryptocurrency sector, with Bitcoin witnessing a significant dip below $80,000, settling at approximately $77,020. Market participants are currently bracing for the crucial Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set to be released on April 10, which could further influence market sentiment.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is scheduled to hold a closed meeting on April 10, drawing attention from investors keen on the outcome of the long-standing case versus Ripple Labs. The outcome of this meeting could have far-reaching implications, particularly regarding whether the SEC will withdraw its appeal challenging the July 2023 ruling that deemed programmatic sales of XRP, Ripple’s cryptocurrency, as not qualifying as securities. Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, previously suggested the appeal might be dropped, but a lack of action or statements from the SEC over the last three weeks has bred uncertainty. This lack of clarity, coupled with rising tariffs and global economic pressures, has played a substantial role in XRP’s declining value.
Since January 31, XRP has experienced a steep 39% drop, marked by a notable 10.38% decline on April 6, closing at $1.9217 before further dropping to around $1.76. This bearish trend is reflective of a 6.88% overall contraction in the global crypto market, which currently holds a total market capitalization of $2.46 trillion. The SEC’s inaction regarding Ripple is starkly contrasted with its quicker dismissal of proceedings against Coinbase, adding to concerns among investors. The absence of regulatory clarity is not only dampening prospects for XRP but is also clouding the potential for an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF).
At the closed meeting, SEC officials, including Acting Chair Mark Uyeda, Commissioner Hester Peirce, and Commissioner Caroline Cranshaw, will vote on the next steps regarding the Ripple case. Given the commission’s Republican majority, which has shown a tendency to favor an end to non-fraud-related cryptocurrency enforcement actions, there remains a chance that the appeal could be withdrawn. Still, this remains uncertain.
Concurrently, the newly implemented tariffs are intensifying the impact on the crypto market, leading to heightened risk aversion among investors who are pivoting towards safe-haven assets. As tensions escalate globally, with retaliatory measures from nations like China, the European Union, and Japan, cryptocurrencies, including XRP and Bitcoin, confront increased volatility.
Bitcoin’s decline can also be attributed to the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, a consequence of the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance and subsequent Yen strengthening. Traders looking for higher yields who initially borrowed in Yen are now pulling back, leading Bitcoin to fall to levels not seen since mid-March. Historical trends show that similar monetary policy changes can adversely affect crypto prices, as seen in an August 2024 drop related to shifts in Bank of Japan policy.
Looking ahead, both traders and investors are bracing for an eventful week with the arrival of critical economic data and regulatory decisions. The April 10 CPI report will shed light on U.S. inflation, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy and impacting risk assets. For XRP specifically, the SEC meeting looms large as the primary variable. If the SEC decides to retract its appeal, it could restore some positive sentiment regarding ETF approvals and institutional endorsement. Conversely, continued regulatory silence may push XRP closer to its support level around $1.7938. Overall, the current landscape remains heavily stifled by inflation fears, geopolitical uncertainties, and regulatory challenges, which continue to shape market perceptions.
