Soybean Market Update: Current Trends and Analysis

Overview of Soybean Pricing

As trading begins on Tuesday, soybean prices have seen a decrease between 3 to 5 cents. On the previous Monday, futures dipped slightly, with values ranging from no change to a loss of 4 cents. The July futures contract expired recently, concluding with 204 deliveries, totaling 1,327 for the month. The national average cash bean price, as reported by cmdtyView, fell by 3 ¼ cents to settle at $9.61 1/2. In terms of soymeal futures, a decline of $1.50 to $2.60 per ton was noted, while soybean oil experienced a rise, increasing by 25 to 42 points. The deliveries for July meal futures reached 111 on Monday night, bringing the total for the month to 4,703 as the contract ended.

Crop Progress and Market Insights

Recent data released on Monday afternoon showed that 47% of the U.S. soybean crop was in bloom by Sunday, matching the five-year average for this time of year. Additionally, the rating of the soybean crops improved, with a 4% increase, resulting in an overall rating of 70%. The Brugler500 index, which considers various ratings, also rose by 7 points, reaching a total of 376.

Export Trends

The USDA reported U.S. soybean exports at approximately 147,045 metric tons (5.4 million bushels) for the week ending July 10. This figure represents a stark decline of 63.2% from the previous week and a decrease of 16.1% compared to the same week last year. During this week, Mexico emerged as the leading importer, purchasing 32,507 metric tons. To date, total exports for the marketing year have reached 46.411 million metric tons (1.705 billion bushels), reflecting a 10.4% increase from the corresponding period in the prior year.

Weather Impacts

Weather forecasts indicate that widespread rain is anticipated this week, with much of the Corn Belt expecting about 1 to 3 inches of precipitation according to the NOAA’s 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF).

Upcoming Data Updates

NOPA data is set to be released later today, with market analysts predicting an average of 185.19 million bushels of soybeans crushed in June, marking an increase of nearly 10 million bushels compared to the previous year. Additionally, soybean oil stock levels are expected to average around 1.374 billion pounds.

Current Soybean Prices

To summarize the latest closing prices:

• July 25 Soybeans: Closed at $9.97, down 7 cents.
• Nearby Cash: Recorded at $9.61 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents.
• August 25 Soybeans: Closed at $10.01, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 4 1/2 cents.
• November 25 Soybeans: Closed at $10.07, down 1/4 cent, currently down 3 cents.
• New Crop Cash: Registered at $9.57 1/4, down 1/2 cent.

By closely monitoring these market dynamics and price trends, stakeholders can make informed decisions in the ever-fluctuating soybean market.