Soybean prices are experiencing an upward trend, maintaining gains seen on Thursday with contracts showing an increase of 6 to 12 cents by midday. The national cash price for soybeans, as reported by CmdtyView, has risen by 11 cents, reaching $9.70 3/4. Meanwhile, soymeal futures have climbed $1.30 per ton, although soy oil futures have seen a decrease of 9 points.
Recent data from the USDA indicates that during the week ending April 3, 2024/25 soybean sales stood at 172,324 metric tons. This figure falls on the lower end of the estimated range of 200,000 to 700,000 metric tons. In contrast, soybean meal sales reached 276,000 metric tons, surpassing expectations which ranged from 75,000 to 470,000 metric tons. Soybean oil sales were reported at 20,020 metric tons, while estimates had expected numbers between 5,000 to 37,000 metric tons.
In the latest USDA update, the U.S. and global balance sheets were revised through the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. This revision resulted in a reduction of U.S. carryout by 5 million bushels, bringing the total to 375 million bushels. The report indicated that imports would increase by 5 million bushels, while the crush rate was projected to rise by 10 million bushels to 2.42 billion bushels.
For international soybean production, Argentina’s estimates remained steady at 49 million metric tons, while Brazil’s forecast held firm at 169 million metric tons. The global carryout was augmented by 1.06 million metric tons, totaling 122.47 million metric tons, primarily due to a higher carry-in. Brazil’s production estimate for the 2023/24 crop year was adjusted upward by 1.5 million metric tons. This morning, updates from CONAB reflected a slight increase in the Brazilian soybean crop to 167.87 million metric tons, marking an increase of 0.5 million metric tons. Conversely, the Rosario Grains Exchange cut its estimate for Argentina’s soybean crop by 1 million metric tons, adjusting the figure to 45.5 million metric tons.
On the trading front, May 2025 soybean contracts have reached $10.24, reflecting an increase of 11 1/4 cents. Nearby cash prices currently sit at $9.70 3/4, up by 11 cents. Additionally, July 2025 soybean futures are trading at $10.32 1/2, up by 9 cents, while November 2025 futures are at $10.03, marking an increase of 6 cents. New crop cash prices are also noted at $9.42, up by 6 1/2 cents.
As the market adjusts to these figures, traders and analysts will be closely monitoring further updates from USDA and international reports regarding soybean production and demand dynamics. The interplay between domestic crop prospects and global market trends will be crucial in shaping price movements in the upcoming months.
In summary, current trends in soybean prices suggest a responsive market adjusting to supply reports and USDA updates. Seasonal trends and global vegetable oil prices also play a significant role in influencing the soy complex, as demand remains a key driver. The global soybean industry faces various challenges and opportunities as it navigates production forecasts and changing crop conditions in major exporting countries.
