Soybean Market Update: Key Developments
Soybean futures experienced a significant uptick on Monday, with contracts increasing between 20 to 27 cents. The cmdtyView Cash Bean price rose by 19.75 cents, reaching $10.60. In addition, soymeal futures climbed by $3.90 to $4.90, while soy oil futures surged by 126 to 137 points as the day drew to a close.
According to the USDA, a private export sale of 120,000 metric tons of corn to Mexico was reported this morning, comprising 24,000 metric tons of old crop and 96,000 metric tons of new crop.
Crop Progress
As of Sunday, USDA reported soybean planting at 48% completed, surpassing both the 37% five-year average and the 34% recorded last year. Furthermore, 17% of the crop has emerged, which is notably 6 percentage points ahead of the average.
The recent discussions between U.S. and Chinese trade representatives yielded positive results, announcing a reduction in tariffs by 115% for each country for the next 90 days. The U.S. lowered its tariff rate on Chinese imports to 30%, while China has adjusted its rate to 10% for U.S. goods.
WASDE Report Insights
The latest WASDE report highlighted a decrease in old crop stocks, showing a drop of 25 million bushels due to increased exports, now estimated at 350 million bushels. Expectations for the new crop yield are set at a trend line average of 52.5 bushels per acre, with acreage remaining unchanged at 83.5 million acres per the March 31 report. Overall production is projected at 4.34 billion bushels, aligning closely with estimates. The old crop ending stocks came in lower than trade predictions at 295 million bushels, and total exports for the year are expected to reach 1.815 billion bushels.
Data from the WASDE report maintained Brazil’s production at 169 million metric tons and Argentina’s at 49 million metric tons. The world carryout figures for 2024/25 soybeans rose slightly to 123.18 million metric tons, with new crop estimates at 124.33 million metric tons.
Weekly Export Performance
Export inspections for the week ending May 8 reported soybean shipments at 426,077 metric tons (15.66 million bushels), marking a 27.7% increase from the previous week but a slight decrease of 1.6% compared to the same week last year. Egypt received the largest share with 127,062 metric tons, followed by 85,001 metric tons shipped to Indonesia and 65,165 metric tons to Mexico. Cumulative marketing year shipments now stand at 43.89 million metric tons (1.613 billion bushels), which is an 11% rise compared to the same week last year.
Market Closing Prices
For May 25, the closing prices were as follows:
- Soybeans: $10.66, a rise of 22 cents.
- Nearby Cash: $10.20, reflecting an increase of 19.75 cents.
- July 25 Soybeans: $10.71 1/4, up by 19.5 cents.
- November 25 Soybeans: $10.57 1/2, up 27 cents.
- New Crop Cash: $9.94 1/2, increasing by 27 cents.
As the market evolves, stakeholders are encouraged to keep an eye on ongoing developments and data reports that may impact future prices and trading decisions. The continued interplay between domestic production, export dynamics, and international trade relations is crucial for evaluating the market’s trajectory moving forward.
