Trump’s First 100 Days: A Historical Stock Market Performance

In the context of U.S. financial markets, President Donald Trump’s initial days in office have proven to be tumultuous. Since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, the S&P 500 has experienced a significant decline of 7.9%, marking the worst performance for a new president in the stock market in over 50 years. This sharp downturn highlights a surprising shift from the optimism that characterized his election victory.

Historically, the S&P 500 usually experiences an increase in its first 100 days, averaging a gain of around 2.1% based on data from elections between 1944 and 2020. However, in contrast to this trend, the only time a new president saw a worse decline was during President Richard Nixon’s second term, when the index fell by 9.9% in 1973 amid economic challenges.

The initial joy of Trump’s election, which saw the S&P 500 reaching new heights, quickly faded. Investors had initially rallied, expecting tax reforms and deregulation that Trump's business background was thought to inspire. In fact, from Election Day to Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 rose by 3.7%, reflecting high hopes for economic changes.

As Trump took office, his administration's early focus on trade policies, which included aggressive tariff strategies, created significant concern among investors. A drastic drop of 10% in the S&P 500 in April underscored these fears, briefly pushing the market into a bear territory. While he softened some of the tariff proposals by allowing countries a 90-day pause to renegotiate, many investors remained apprehensive about the future.

Industry experts are voicing their skepticism. Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, suggested that the recent market fluctuations may merely represent a temporary upswing in an ongoing bear market. Hirsch noted the unsettling atmosphere in Washington as a critical factor contributing to this uncertainty.

Currently, all eyes are on the stock market as Trump approaches the end of his first 100 days, which officially concludes this week. There remains a possibility for the S&P 500 to claw back some of its losses, drawing closer to the 6.9% drop experienced during George W. Bush's early days in 2001.

Despite the dismal figures, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic that measures taken now might stabilize the market. The stark contrast between initial market reactions and current performance sets the stage for what could be a defining period for Trump’s economic policies.

As the administration moves forward, navigating these early challenges will be crucial for both Trump and investors. The market's response to upcoming policies and statements will likely shape public confidence and investor sentiment in the near term.