Wheat Market Update: Trends and Forecasts
Wheat prices are showing an upward trend across all major exchanges on this Wednesday morning. After a downturn the previous day, where futures experienced losses on all fronts, there is a notable shift today. The Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat futures ended Tuesday with declines of 5 to 6 cents. Similarly, Kansas City Hard Red Winter (HRW) futures recorded losses of 1 to 3 cents by the close of trading. In addition, Minneapolis Spring wheat futures were also down, showing a decrease of 3 to 4 cents in the nearby contracts.
The latest weekly Crop Progress report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) indicates a 1% decrease in the overall condition of the winter wheat crop, now sitting at 47% rated as good/excellent. On the Brugler500 index, there was a slight uptick of 1 point to 329, largely due to a 2% change in the classification away from poor and very poor conditions. The report highlighted that states known for HRW saw the most significant declines, with Nebraska dropping 30 points, Colorado decreasing by 12 points, and Kansas falling by 9 points.
In international updates, the French Agriculture Ministry has projected the country’s soft wheat cultivation to cover approximately 4.61 million hectares (about 11.44 million acres), marking a 10% increase from the previous year. Conversely, Argentina’s wheat production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 20.5 million metric tons (MMT), a rise from 18.6 MMT reported for the last year, as noted by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
As of the latest trading session on May 25, the CBOT Wheat futures closed at $5.42, down by 5.5 cents, but are currently experiencing an increase of 6 cents. The July contracts also saw a decline, closing at $5.56, down 5.75 cents, with current values up by 6 cents. The Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) also reflects similar trends, with the May contracts closing at $5.53, which is down 2.25 cents, while currently showing an increase of 7 cents. The July KCBT Wheat contract closed at $5.68.5, down by 1.75 cents, now up by 4.75 cents.
Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) wheat futures closed at $6.01.25, declining by 3.5 cents, but, like its counterparts, is currently appreciating by 5.75 cents. The July MGEX contracts closed at $6.15.5, down by another 3.5 cents, though currently, it is up by 5.5 cents.
As the wheat market continues to fluctuate, traders and investors will be closely monitoring these changes along with the forthcoming reports on crop conditions and global production forecasts. The increase observed today indicates a potential recovery following the recent downturn, which could stir interest in wheat trading in the short to medium term.
For more in-depth analyses on wheat and other commodities, industry enthusiasts can stay informed and up-to-date with the latest insights and market movements.
